Amphibious Landing Ukraine - "The war started in Crimea - and it will end there." In his weekly video address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made it clear that he has no intention of giving up the peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.
Just before the address, several massive explosions rocked a Russian airbase near Novofedorivka in western Crimea. It was reportedly a targeted attack by Ukraine, although there has been no official confirmation and Kiev has denied responsibility for the blasts.
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If it turns out to be a military strike, it would be the first attack on the peninsula since its annexation eight years ago and would have the same symbolic significance as the sinking of the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva in April. The reason for this may be that Russia did not describe the explosions in Crimea as an attack on Ukraine. According to Moscow, it was just a case of some munitions detonating due to mishandling.
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Bombing targets in Crimea would have a different meaning for Russia than the war in Donbass and the rest of Ukraine. Moscow considers the peninsula, which was annexed in violation of international law, as its own national territory and, following an internationally unrecognized referendum, as part of the Russian Federation.
According to one Russian interpretation, an attack on Crimea would mean that the war had moved to Russian territory - threatening a further escalation of the war.
But Ukraine also considers Crimea as part of its territory. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov told CNN in mid-June: "We will liberate all regions, including Crimea," even as his adviser, Yuriy Saak, said "the most important thing" is to push the enemy to a Minima fell back to achieve withdrawal of invading forces to pre-February 24 levels.
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For Moscow, Crimea is even more important than the rest of Ukraine. It remained under Russian control for more than two centuries. Many ethnic Russians were resettled there by the tsars in the 18th and 19th centuries, and Soviet leader Stalin continued this policy into the 20th century.
In the Soviet Union, Crimea originally belonged to the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR). It was only in 1954 that the Ukrainian SSR was given by order of Stalin's successor, Nikita Khrushchev, under circumstances that are not entirely clear to this day. One reason may be that Khrushchev himself was originally from Ukraine.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Crimea officially became a Ukrainian territory, despite the fact that the population consisted of 60% ethnic Russians and only about 40% Ukrainians and Crimean Tatars. Kiev was never able to fully assert its authority. Kiev granted the peninsula autonomous status – and entered into lease agreements with Russia for the strategically important port of Sevastopol, for example.
The invasion of Crimea will be as symbolically important as the sinking of the Russian cruiser Moskva Image: Russian Navy Black Sea Fleet/TASS/dpa/Picture Alliance
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The Soviet Black Sea Fleet was stationed here and is currently the only major year-round ice-free port used by Russia. The lease agreement gave Russia military access to the Black Sea and an important economic center.
Until 2014, the lease of the port by Russia did not pose any major problems. But then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych tried to scrap a planned association agreement with the European Union, sparking pro-EU protests in Kyiv. In an event known as Euromaidan, the president was overthrown and forced to flee to Moscow. Suddenly, the Kremlin saw the threat of losing Sevastopol and all of Crimea to the NATO defensive military alliance if Kiev turned west. Russia has decided to annex Crimea – in violation of international law.
A controversial referendum the same year was supposed to legitimize the movement, as more than 90% of participants were said to be in favor of secession from Ukraine. However, the referendum, which was not recognized internationally, took place in chaotic conditions without credible international observers. Therefore, the results cannot be independently verified. A leaked report from the Russian president's Human Rights Council put turnout at just 30 percent.
Part of Russia's goal in its current war with Ukraine is to further tighten its grip on Crimea. In addition to capturing Donbas, the Kremlin has said building a Russian-held land corridor from there to Crimea is one of its most important goals.
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With further conquests in southern Ukraine, Putin would create more facts: a return to pre-annexation conditions would be nearly impossible.
If it annexes Crimea, Russia will easily be able to cut off the port of Odessa Image: Ukrainian Presidential Press / Reuters
Ukraine would be completely denied access to the Sea of Azov, and since Crimea extends like a giant wedge into the Black Sea, Russia could also control and block all shipping to the last remaining Ukrainian port on the Black Sea. Odessa.. , Fierce fighting for the small Snake Island shows that this is also one of Russia's war objectives.
However, it is not clear how far Kiev is prepared to go to bring Crimea back under its control.
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"The return of the peninsula is an issue that needs to be negotiated diplomatically," said Saak, a government adviser. However, how the potential outcome of the talks will be achieved remains very unclear at the moment.
Given the current balance of power, Crimea's strategic importance to Russia, as well as the loyalty of most residents to Moscow, it is highly unlikely that Crimea will become Ukrainian again anytime soon.
Editor's note: On August 11, this article was amended to include additional information about the annexation of Crimea. Ivan Gren-class amphibious warship RTS Pyotr Morgunov (117) entered the Black Sea on February 9, 2022. Photo by Yoruk Isik, used with permission
This story has been updated with additional information from Pentagon officials about the amphibious assault near Mariupol and the ship's position near Odessa.
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US defense officials said on Sunday that thousands of Russian naval infantry had joined other Russian ground forces and were about 30 miles southwest of the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.
The amphibious force landed in Ukraine via the Sea of Azov on Friday and headed 12 miles east of Mariupol, a senior defense official told reporters on Sunday.
A defense official said: "Our assessment is that Mariupol is defended and that the Ukrainians will hold out there."
On Saturday, USNI contributor H I Sutton released satellite photos showing a patrol boat, the RTS flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
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Russian Navy ships off the coast of Ukraine on February 26, 2022. Graphic by H I Sutton, used with permission
Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby told reporters that the Defense Department did not have "full visibility" of the attack and could not provide an exact count of the number of troops Russia had put ashore via amphibious assault ships.
Kirby said the amphibious assault was part of a Russian plan to cut off the Donbass region and continue targeting population centers.
The USNI previously reported that the Russian Navy played a supporting role in the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, which Russia launched on Thursday morning.
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The amphibious assault comes from one of two amphibious task forces assembled by Moscow for the assault on the neighboring country. Another task force is believed to be in Crimea and could land troops in the Black Sea port of Odessa.
On Sunday, Pentagon officials said Russian naval forces were beginning to mass south of Odessa in the Black Sea, but did not indicate the forces' intentions.
"We are seeing some [marine] movement in the Black Sea, south of Odessa. It is a bit worrying, but it is hard to understand now what it means," the official said.
The USNI reported that Moscow has a force of over 10 amphibious ships. The Kremlin moved six amphibious landing craft to the Black Sea last month to join the landing craft already in the Black Sea Fleet.
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These include three Ropucha-class tank landing ships capable of landing 10 main battle tanks and 350 troops ashore. The larger Ivan Gran class can, also in the Black Sea, carry 13 main battle tanks and 300 troops while deploying two attack helicopters.
On Saturday, a senior defense official said the landing near Mariupol used just under half of Russia's tanker landing ships in the Black Sea.
"Our assessment was that they used four of their landing craft to carry out this attack. We don't know how many naval infantry were on each, we don't have an exact count," the official said.
Meanwhile, two commercial ships in the port of Odesa came under Russian fire, according to the Navy.
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, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry attributes the missile to Russia, while the Moldovan government said the source is unknown.
US agribusiness giant Cargill has confirmed that one of its chartered grain ships was attacked in the Black Sea.
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